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Since the 2008 financial crisis, academicians, experts and analysts have been studying the effects of disruptions to economies and businesses, world over. A lot of research and writings since then have led to various models which can help leaders prepare, predict and cope with emergent disruptions.  However, 2020 saw a global, almost apocalyptic disruption affect the entire planet. Global education systems were disrupted in a way that only West Africans could comprehend – for they had experienced a similar large-scale disruption during the 2013-2016, Ebola epidemic.

Back here in Kenya, the on-going curriculum reforms has given education policy makers and education institution leaders, a chance to re-imagine how to provide for educational access, equity, quality and sustainability in uncertain times.   During the pandemic, school and institution leaders have become more important than ever. The pandemic has provided education leaders with a global snapshot of the effect a large scale disruption can have on the entire education spectrum.  So, what implications does this current context have for leaders (new and old) as they prepare to lead in uncertain times?

For most leaders managing education institutions in Kenya, the pandemic has forced them to look to the business world to understand the crisis and find quick turn-around solutions.  J. McGregor & A. Harris (2006) posits that the start of ‘...the new century [...] has been characterized by calls for a greater understanding of the processes of knowledge creation and the transfer of practice.’  Yet it took the global shut-down of education systems to make school leaders seek out new knowledge that would help them adapt, and help them redesign their schools for learners. School leaders were forced out of their insular, inward-looking models to embrace collaboration, even us they looked to the business world to help them solve problems and improve their adaptive capabilities. The spotlight turned on the school leaders to provide; direction, hope and reassurance, to learners, teachers, parents and other school employees. For those of us in private education, the challenge was even more daunting, as we were required to ensure learning continued sustainably without diluting quality and whilst still ensuring that delivery was effective.

What happens when school leaders are uncertain?
When a school is staring down the barrel of uncertainty, problems can start adding up even more than usual.  Take the example of Ganttic, a company that specializes in making resource planning processes. In one of their case scenarios they claim, that several things happen when leaders are faced with uncertainty, or when they are uncertain in decisiveness. They say that the following happens;

1. Leaders can make unreliable projections
2. Leaders may fail to give clear timelines
3. It can lead to a lack of resources
4. Which inevitable leads to staff facing a stressful working environment

They conclude by saying, if the school leader is incapacitated by uncertainty and indecision, then inevitably communication issues will arise.

According to Mckinsey & Company (2020), in order to “respond effectively, leaders should act on three imperatives:
a) Clarify purpose,
b) Support stakeholders, and
c) Bolster emotional and organizational resilience.

The ability of leaders to prepare their institutions to ride out emergent disruptions will enable them impact the destiny of their institutions positively, even as they provide opportunities for new entrants.  In fact disruptions allow new leaders to rise from what seems to be impossible situations.  

The rollout of the Competency Based Curriculum (CBC) and the Competency Based Education and Training (CBET) ushers in an era of near-constant change and discontinuity in our education system.  Technology, globalization and emergent factors such as climate change, renewable energy will define and intensify the natural forces of market competition, as well as impacting the shape of the workspace. For us in Education, it is important that we craft and modify our training curricula to accommodate such eventualities, by prioritizing increased post-training employability courses.
 
In this regard, the familiar world is no more, Kenya and Africa at large must adapt or be left behind. The good news is that most of the disruptive technologies, trends and developments we are seeing today have largely worked in favour of African economies. We should explore and harness them to help us leap-frog in to the future. For instance here in Kenya technology like mobile money and mobile banking is changing how people access finance and banking services. These trends are gaining strength and momentum especially when you look at the post-pandemic projections. Most of us fail to realize that the speed and scale of changes taking place, as well as the effects that will result out of this change. Will impact us for a long time, unfortunately we are failing to make reliable projections as Mckinse & Company have posited.

And as the country goes through rapid urbanization and technological disruption, especially at the county level, and when this is paired to impact the Africa Continental Free Trade Area Agreement (AfCFTA) will have as a result of forming the world’s largest free trade area. Imagine the scope and potential of opportunities for education and training in a post-pandemic scenario, when all the above mentioned changes are fully implemented. The opportunities are endless.

School leaders need to be aware of the full impact of such policy trends. For instance the full implementation of AfCFTA would help private education institutions expand beyond country borders. With this, they would be able to increase their resiliency in the face of future economic shocks. As well as ushering in the need for deeper reforms that are necessary to enhance long-term growth as focus moves to producing a future-proof education system.

Mutheu Kasanga
www.mutheukasaanga.co.ke

REFERENCES
1. (https://www.ganttic.com/blog/list-of-leadership-skills-to-manage-an-uncertain-future)
2. Segel, L. H. (2020) Positive Leadership In Uncertain Times, MckInsey & Company, New York: www.mcinsey.com
3. Street, H. and Temperley, J. (2006) Improving Schools Through Collaborative Enquiry, London: Continuum.
4. https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-african-continental-free-trade-area
5. R. Dobbs, J. Manyika, J. Woetzel (2015) No Ordinary Disruption:The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends. New York: Hachette Book Group